In the intricate web of geopolitics, economics often plays a more decisive role than military might. A closer look at the trade and budgetary dynamics between India, China, and Pakistan reveals a compelling truth. War is a lose-lose proposition for all involved, while peace and cooperation offer the only sustainable path forward.
India’s Trade with China is a a double-edged sword. India imports over ₹10.56 lakh crore worth of goods from China annually account for over 20% of india union budget. These imports span a wide range of sectors — from electronics and machinery to chemicals and consumer goods. However, a significant portion of these are “good-to-have” rather than “must-have” items. In times of crisis, such discretionary spending would be the first to be cut.
This means that in the event of a conflict, India’s import demand would shrink, directly impacting Chinese exporters. China, which thrives on global trade, is well aware of this vulnerability.
India’s Budget Priorities considering development vs. defense impacts its development. India’s 2024 Union Budget stands at ₹50.65 lakh crore, with the 2025 defense allocation at ₹6.81 lakh crore — about 13.4% of the total. A war would necessitate a sharp increase in defense spending, diverting funds from critical areas like
- Infrastructure development
- Education and healthcare
- Social welfare programs
- Technological innovation
This reprioritization delays national progress, affecting millions of lives and stalling long-term growth.
Pakistan’s Fragile Position is what it know and it is the one who will loose the most. Pakistan, grappling with economic instability, is in no position to sustain a prolonged conflict. The country is heavily reliant on international aid and loans, and any military escalation would
- Drain its limited resources
- Deter foreign investment
- Deepen internal socio-economic challenges
For Pakistan, peace is not just preferable, it’s essential for survival and recovery.
China’s Strategic Calculus is it's formula of growth. China, despite its military strength, has a vested interest in regional stability. India is one of its largest trading partners, and a war would
- Disrupt supply chains
- Reduce consumer demand in India
- Invite global scrutiny and potential sanctions
In short, a stable India is good for China’s economy. A war, especially one involving nuclear-armed neighbors, is a high-risk scenario with no real upside.
The Real Question is, "who benefits?" If India, China, and Pakistan all stand to lose from war, then who benefits?
- Arms manufacturers?
- External powers seeking regional instability?
- Political factions looking to consolidate power?
These are the uncomfortable questions that policymakers must confront. The answer is often not the people, who bear the brunt of war through loss, displacement, and economic hardship.
The peaceful coexistence is a practice which needs to be encouraged. A well maintained, economically stable neighborhood is in everyone's best interest. Instead of preparing for war, the focus should be on
- Strengthening diplomatic channels
- Enhancing regional trade
- Collaborating on climate, health, and technology
- Building mutual trust through transparency
In today’s interconnected world, economic interdependence is a powerful deterrent to war. India, China, and Pakistan must recognize that their futures are intertwined and that peace is not just a moral imperative, but a strategic necessity.
Let’s hope that wisdom prevails over aggression, and that the subcontinent chooses progress over provocation of the war mongering external forces who want war.
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